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Arch Manning’s Uneven Start Resets Expectations as 2027 Draft Talk Grows

Analysts urge patience, citing protection issues that complicate his development.

Overview

  • Through five starts, Manning is 81-of-135 (60.0%) for 1,151 yards with 11 touchdowns and five interceptions, plus 160 rushing yards and five rushing scores as Texas sits 3-2.
  • Pro Football Focus charted him pressured on 61.9% of dropbacks with six sacks against Florida, and Steve Sarkisian said concepts designed to push the ball downfield have lengthened his time to release.
  • ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky predicted Manning will be the No. 1 pick in the 2027 NFL Draft, maintaining that his traits still profile for the NFL despite this season’s inconsistency.
  • Recent analysis from multiple outlets projects he is more likely to return to Texas than enter the 2026 draft, with NIL and further development cited as incentives.
  • Texas faces Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry at the Cotton Bowl today, with senior Matthew Caldwell designated as the backup if the Longhorns make a change under center.