Overview
- Joint List chairman Yousef Jabareen said on Sunday that his Arab bloc is prepared to give conditional parliamentary support to any effort to replace Netanyahu, with demands on crime prevention in Arab towns, a halt to home demolitions, and diplomatic steps on Palestinian statehood.
- Recent polls show a razor-close race that leaves neither the pro‑Netanyahu nor the opposition bloc guaranteed 61 seats, with the Arab parties projected at about 13 Knesset seats and the pro‑Netanyahu camp holding a narrow lead in several surveys.
- Both camps are actively trying to change post‑election arithmetic: Likud has assembled a team to identify potential defectors from Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar! list, and ultra‑Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism signed a surplus‑vote pact to try to gain an extra seat.
- Political leaders are reshaping red lines: Naftali Bennett said he would not rule out Netanyahu serving as a minister if key demands including an immediate state commission of inquiry into the October 7 failures were met, while Eisenkot and others have publicly opposed dependence on Arab support.
- Israel’s proportional system and the 3.25% threshold mean small parties, surplus‑vote deals, defections and last‑minute vote swings can decide who governs, so post‑election negotiations and tactical moves are likely to determine the next government and affect policies on security, justice and daily life.