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Applied Materials Beats Q4, Lifts Outlook as China Curbs Darken 2026

Investors are focusing on tighter U.S. export rules that will curb China sales in 2026.

Overview

  • Fiscal Q4 revenue was $6.8 billion and adjusted EPS was $2.17, topping estimates though both declined year over year.
  • Guidance for fiscal Q1 calls for revenue of $6.85 billion plus or minus $500 million and adjusted EPS of $1.98 to $2.38, modestly above consensus.
  • Management reiterated an expected roughly $600 million revenue impact in fiscal 2026 from expanded U.S. export controls and said China equipment spending will fall, noting China now contributes a mid‑20% share of sales versus nearly 40% in recent years.
  • About $110 million of products were not shipped in Q4 under an affiliate rule that has since been suspended after TrumpXi talks, with those tools slated to ship by January and included in the outlook.
  • Shares slipped roughly 3%–5% after the report as analysts updated targets and cautioned that non‑U.S. competitors can still sell to some Chinese customers that Applied Materials cannot serve.