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Apple Tops 2025 Smartphone Market With Record Q4 Share as 2026 Outlook Softens

Escalating memory prices coupled with supply tightness are forcing a more cautious 2026 forecast.

Overview

  • Omdia reports Q4 2025 shipments rose 4% with Apple reaching a record 25% share on strong iPhone 17 demand and continued sales of older models.
  • Full-year shipments hit about 1.25 billion units, up 2%, with Apple confirmed as the annual leader; Counterpoint pegs 2025 shares at Apple 20%, Samsung 19%, and Xiaomi 13%.
  • Samsung took 18% in Q4, driven by sub-$300 Galaxy A17 models, while Xiaomi held 11% despite headwinds in key markets; vivo and OPPO each captured 8%.
  • Analysts warn DRAM shortages, particularly LPDDR4 and LPDDR5, and rising component costs are constraining supply, and Counterpoint cut its 2026 shipment forecast by 3%.
  • Industry consolidation is accelerating as realme is integrated into OPPO and OnePlus, with Counterpoint estimating a combined OPPO+realme share near 11% that would rank fourth globally.