Overview

• President Trump has warned Apple of a 25% tariff on iPhones not manufactured in the United States as leverage to boost domestic production.
• Canalys data show US-bound shipments from India surged 76% year-over-year in April, reaching roughly 3 million units.
• Apple aims to source 25% of its global iPhone output from India by the end of 2025 and complete a majority of US-destined assembly there by mid-2026.
• Analysts at Morgan Stanley and Wedbush highlight that onshoring iPhone production in the US would take years to build capacity and could increase unit costs by at least 35%.
• While the White House publicly downplays harm to Apple, Beijing’s restrictions on advanced machinery for Indian suppliers add pressure to the company’s diversification effort.