Overview
- Counterpoint projects about 243 million iPhones shipped in 2025 versus roughly 235 million for Samsung, equating to 19.4% vs 18.7% global share.
- If realized, this would mark Apple’s first annual lead in unit shipments over Samsung since 2011.
- Strong iPhone 17 demand underpins the outlook, with sales up 22% in the first month and 37% year over year in October in tracked markets.
- Analysts point to an upgrade-cycle inflection and 358 million recent secondhand iPhone users likely to trade up, alongside support from easing U.S.–China trade tensions and a weaker dollar.
- Counterpoint forecasts Apple retaining No. 1 through 2029 with additions like an iPhone 17e and a foldable in 2026, while noting shipments are not the same as retail sales and Samsung is still growing.