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Apple Poised to Reclaim No. 1 Smartphone Spot in 2025, Counterpoint Says

A replacement‑cycle inflection underpins the upgraded outlook.

Overview

  • Counterpoint projects iPhone shipments to rise about 10% in 2025 versus 4.6% for Samsung, putting Apple near 19.4% share as the overall market grows 3.3%.
  • Analysts cite strong iPhone 17 demand in the US and China with double‑digit sales growth, boosted by an upgrade wave, easing USChina trade tensions, and a weaker dollar supporting emerging‑market purchases.
  • September tracking showed iPhones leading sales in six countries, while Samsung’s Galaxy S25 led France and Samsung foldables outperformed Apple in South Korea.
  • Counterpoint expects Apple to retain the top position through 2029, with a 2026 foldable iPhone and a lower‑priced iPhone 17e viewed as potential tailwinds and a 2027 design revamp reported by Bloomberg.
  • Despite recent gains, Android remains the leading operating system in most markets except the United States, according to Counterpoint.