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Apple Heads Into Earnings With Services Set to Top $100 Billion and iPhone 17 Off to Fast Start

Options traders are pricing about a 4% swing around Thursday's report.

Overview

  • Apple reports fiscal Q4 2025 after the close on October 30, with Wall Street expecting about $102 billion in revenue and roughly $1.78–$1.81 in EPS.
  • Analysts estimate Services revenue at about $108.6 billion for fiscal 2025, up ~13% year over year and contributing a disproportionately large share of profit despite ongoing antitrust and regulatory scrutiny.
  • Counterpoint data indicate iPhone 17 sales ran about 14% ahead of iPhone 16 in the first 10 days across the U.S. and China.
  • Management expects roughly a $1.1 billion tariff hit to the quarter, with gross margins forecast in the 46%–47% range.
  • Views remain split with price targets roughly $203 to $290, as JPMorgan flags strong sentiment tied to iPhone 17 and a possible foldable iPhone 18 next year while others cite China competition and valuation risks.