Overview
- Nearly 70% expect Australia to be involved in a military conflict within five years, and 45% think a foreign attack on Australian soil is probable.
- Six non-military risks — climate impacts, AI-enabled attacks, disinformation, foreign interference, economic crisis and critical supply disruption — were each judged likely by 85–89% of respondents within five years.
- Across 15 surveyed threats, fewer than one in five respondents rated Australia as very or fully prepared.
- Concern has risen sharply among young adults, with worry among 18–24 year olds jumping from 22% in November 2024 to 55% by February 2026, as overall worry reached about two-thirds.
- Security agencies such as the AFP and ASIO attract relatively high trust, while many distrust politicians and some media, and 53% say government shares too little information; terrorism concern rose to 72% after the Bondi attack and most data pre-dates the latest Iran conflict.