Overview

• NOAA and other analyses show stratospheric temperatures over Antarctica rose about 30–50°C in mid‑September, with scientists also reporting the polar vortex winds slowing from roughly 200 km/h to near 100 km/h.
• The Bureau of Meteorology and updated models have pared back earlier wet‑spring guidance for October, with odds shifting toward warmer, drier conditions for much of eastern Australia.
• Stronger westerlies are expected to push farther north over southern Australia, increasing fronts and wind bursts, with western Tasmania showing the clearest wet signal.
• Forecasters caution that abnormally hot days are possible in southern areas and that more frequent strong gales could raise fire danger, although recent wet soils temper broader bushfire risk for now.
• Competing ocean drivers—a negative Indian Ocean Dipole and a possible weak La Niña—add uncertainty to the outlook, and a smaller Antarctic ozone hole is likely as a side effect of the warming.