Overview
- The peer‑reviewed analysis of Adélie, chinstrap and gentoo penguins reports average advances of roughly 10 days per decade for Adélies and chinstraps and 13 days for gentoos, with some colonies up to 24 days earlier.
- Authors describe the shift as the fastest phenological change recorded in any bird and possibly any vertebrate over comparable periods.
- The decade-long Penguin Watch project used 77 time‑lapse cameras at 37 colonies with on-site temperature sensors and millions of citizen‑science annotations to track settlement dates.
- Earlier and overlapping breeding increases competition for food and nesting space, with observations of gentoos displacing Adélie and chinstrap nests in mixed colonies.
- Scientists warn of declining chinstrap populations with models indicating possible extinction by century’s end and potential regional losses of Adélies, while stressing that impacts on chick survival remain uncertain and require continued monitoring.