Overview
- Polymarket data show a new account created in December made concentrated Venezuela wagers—including on Maduro’s removal, a U.S. invasion and War Powers—placing its largest bet shortly before the operation became public.
- Odds that Maduro would be out by January 31 rose from about 6.5% Friday afternoon to double digits before President Trump’s pre-dawn post confirmed the capture.
- Chainalysis reports the bettor has already withdrawn winnings in Solana through a major U.S. exchange without signs of obfuscation, though the person’s identity is unknown.
- Rep. Ritchie Torres says he will introduce a bill to bar government employees from trading on prediction markets when they possess material nonpublic information.
- Legal and market experts say the trade shows hallmarks of an inside-information bet and urge tighter oversight, as Polymarket also ruled the operation was not an “invasion,” frustrating some users seeking a payout on that market.