Overview
- An account created in December 2025 turned a $32,537 stake into roughly $436,000 by betting that Nicolás Maduro would be out of power by January 31, shortly before President Trump announced Maduro’s capture on January 3.
- Polymarket data show implied odds for Maduro’s ouster rose from about 6.5% on January 2 to 11% before midnight, then jumped in the early hours before the public announcement.
- Blockchain firm Chainalysis said the bettor withdrew winnings in Solana through a major U.S. exchange without signs of laundering, but the person’s identity and location remain unknown.
- Rep. Ritchie Torres has proposed legislation to bar government employees from trading on prediction markets when they hold material nonpublic information, with legal experts noting prosecution in such cases is uncertain.
- Polymarket previously paid a $1.4 million CFTC penalty in 2022 and says it gained U.S. approval in November via a licensed acquisition, while regulators have not announced enforcement related to these specific trades.