Aneel Refuses Eneva Deal Over Thermal Plants Citing Weak Evidence

Overview

• The agency’s board declined to advance a proposed agreement to flexibilize three Eneva thermal plants because it lacked confidence in the benefits presented and judged the analysis insufficient to protect market actors.
• Company and adviser estimates projected R$1.7 billion to R$3.2 billion in savings for regulated consumers through 2030, but the figures came from different methods: Eneva’s consolidation of CCEE impacts and a higher estimate from consultancy PSR.
• A key regulatory concern was time mismatch: plant contracts run for 10–20 years while the submitted simulations used a roughly 4.5‑year horizon, raising the risk of higher short‑term costs for participants in the short‑term electricity market.
• Eneva said it is willing to resume talks to find a consensual solution, while ministry sources expect any agreement mediated by the TCU to be delayed beyond this year.
• The dispute highlights a policy tradeoff between near‑term bill relief for regulated consumers and the need for more prospective, robust modeling to avoid shifting large costs onto short‑term market players and industry.