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22h ago

Analytics Reframe Bryce Harper’s 2025 as Phillies Weigh Schwarber Decision

New analysis portrays Harper’s season as undervalued to reset Philadelphia’s offseason calculus.

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - OCTOBER 08: Kyle Schwarber #12 of the Philadelphia Phillies hits a solo home run against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the fourth inning in game three of the National League Division Series at Dodger Stadium on October 08, 2025 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - OCTOBER 08: Kyle Schwarber #12 of the Philadelphia Phillies reacts after hitting a solo home run against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the fourth inning in game three of the National League Division Series at Dodger Stadium on October 08, 2025 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
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Overview

  • After Dave Dombrowski labeled Bryce Harper "merely good, not elite," the executive said the two spoke and downplayed any rift.
  • Forbes’ TPRAA model ranked Harper eighth among NL position players and narrowly ahead of Kyle Schwarber, highlighting stronger overall value.
  • Expected-stat estimates say Harper was unlucky on balls in play and "should have" hit about .277/.365/.505, which helps explain his lack of MVP votes after a 132-game, wrist-limited season.
  • Defensive and plate-discipline data favor Harper’s broader profile at first base (-8.2 runs, better K/BB and low pop-up rate) over Schwarber’s DH-heavy value and -19.5 defensive adjustment.
  • The valuation gap factors into a pivotal winter in which Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, and Ranger Suárez are free agents, with reports indicating the Phillies aim to retain Schwarber and Realmuto and Dombrowski reaffirming Harper as the everyday first baseman.