Overview

• President Trump said the U.S. is trying to take back Bagram Airfield and warned that "bad things are going to happen" if the Taliban refuse, while his claim about nearby Chinese nuclear facilities remains unconfirmed by the White House and Pentagon.
• The Taliban rejected the demand for a U.S. return to Bagram, though it signaled interest in political and economic ties with Washington.
• China has cultivated influence in Kabul, appointing an ambassador in 2023 and sending Foreign Minister Wang Yi in August to pursue mining and trade, which experts say gives Beijing tools to pressure the Taliban against a U.S. reentry.
• Independent assessments argue a forcible seizure would require significant forces, exclusive air resupply, and sustained protection under persistent attack, with regional countries unlikely to provide staging or access.
• Foreign ministers of China, Russia, Pakistan and Iran issued a joint statement at the U.N. opposing the reestablishment of foreign military bases in or around Afghanistan.