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Analysts Tout Puka Nacua for OPOY as Betting Markets Back Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Odds still favor Jaxon Smith-Njigba despite analytics backing Nacua.

Overview

  • ESPN’s Bill Barnwell predicts Nacua will win Offensive Player of the Year, pointing to receptions and yards over expected and his versatility after the catch and as a runner.
  • Nacua closed the regular season with 129 receptions, 1,715 yards and 10 touchdowns, leading the league in receptions, yards per route run and targets per route.
  • Advanced metrics place his campaign among the best by a wide receiver, including a PFF receiving grade above 96 and top-tier marks in DYAR with added rushing value.
  • Sportsbooks still price Jaxon Smith-Njigba as a substantial favorite for OPOY at roughly -2000, with Nacua around +1300.
  • Nacua has 322 receiving yards and a touchdown in three playoff games and has been especially efficient in 13 personnel, where his yards per route and EPA per play roughly double compared with 11 personnel.