Overview
- After a 31% gain against the dollar in 2025, the ruble’s support from high rates and year‑end tax flows is fading, according to new assessments.
- Forecasts for 2026 center on a gradual depreciation to roughly 90–95 per dollar, with scenarios spanning 75–100 and a possible key rate cut toward about 12% by year‑end.
- Urals fell to around $34 per barrel on some December days with a roughly $27 discount to Brent, tied to U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, tanker attacks, and softer global prices.
- Weaker oil prices and a strong currency are set to compress January oil‑tax receipts, with Reuters estimating NDPI near 380 billion rubles versus 840 billion a year earlier after an 11‑month deficit of 4.3 trillion rubles.
- Several analysts expect the Urals discount to narrow over coming months, potentially lifting the grade toward about $50 per barrel even without Brent gains, while Russian output is seen stable given field profitability.