Overview
- Argentina’s approved 2026 budget targets a 1.5% of GDP primary surplus after lawmakers added costs by ending the Disability Emergency and expanding university financing.
- The fiscal plan was built on a 10.1% inflation assumption and about 20% nominal GDP growth, with private economists calling the embedded 5% real growth outlook optimistic.
- Economy Ministry teams are preparing administrative reallocations within legal limits, yet indexation—especially pension mobility—constrains how much can be shifted.
- Accrual data show December 2025 primary spending rose 3.9% year over year, producing a roughly $4.25 trillion primary deficit for the month, according to ASAP using SIDIF figures.
- Excluding an April 2025 BCRA transfer of about $12 trillion, the year’s devengado primary balance was a $9.46 trillion surplus but the overall fiscal result turned slightly negative by $690 billion, a backdrop that complicates 2027 planning.