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Analysts See 2026 Bitcoin Base Case as Consolidation, With Liquidity-Driven Upside

Spot ETF flows alongside tightened post‑halving supply now anchor the market’s direction.

Overview

  • Market strategists from Julius Baer, Scope Market and others describe consolidation as the central 2026 case, with $100,000 expected to act as a key level.
  • Easier financial conditions, a weaker dollar and sustained ETF inflows are cited as prerequisites for a renewed advance toward or beyond prior highs.
  • Scenario ranges span $140,000–$160,000 in favorable conditions, with Julius Baer putting a bullish ceiling near $150,000 and a downside case below $80,000.
  • Analysts say the US spot ETF era has drawn regulated institutions such as BlackRock and Fidelity into the market, reshaping liquidity and demand.
  • 10x Research reports a convergence of options positioning, compressed volatility and technical exhaustion into record expiries that could precede a larger move.