Overview

• A Reuters survey of 31 economists pegs Brent at an average $67.65 and WTI at $64.65 for 2025, implying only limited upside from recent trading ranges.
• OPEC+ approved a 547,000 bpd production increase for September, with some analysts saying the group is prioritizing market share over higher prices.
• The poll expects global demand growth of roughly 500,000 to 1.1 million bpd in 2025, a modest pace that aligns with a subdued outlook and compares with the IEA’s 680,000 bpd forecast.
• Major banks anticipate a price slide in late 2025 and early 2026 as oversupply grows, with recent surveys pointing to Brent averages in the low-to-mid $60s by Q4.
• Geopolitical risks persist as Ukraine targets Russian oil infrastructure, with industry reporting suggesting curtailed exports via Ust-Luga, while Trump’s tariff threats to Russian oil buyers are seen by most polled analysts as having limited market impact.