Overview
- Energy Aspects forecast, reported on Monday, that the third quarter will see about a 218,000 barrels‑per‑day deficit in fuel oil for ships and power plants.
- Refiners are redirecting heavy residues into diesel, gasoline and jet fuel to capture higher margins, which reduces the volume of low‑value fuel oil available for shipping.
- War‑related hits to refining and shipping flows have cut exports: Kpler data show Russia’s fuel oil exports fell to about 591,000 bpd in August and Middle East exports were down roughly 45% from March to August.
- Stocks at major bunker hubs — Singapore, ARA and Fujairah — sit around 30% below three‑year seasonal averages and very low sulphur fuel oil prices in Singapore have jumped about 76% since the Iran conflict began.
- Higher bunker costs are already raising the risk of rising freight rates and supply‑chain pain for shippers and companies that rely on maritime trade, with Asia and Singapore particularly exposed because they import most of their fuel oil from the Gulf.