Overview
- Independent forecasters and The Senior Citizens League now center their provisional 2027 COLA estimates around 3.7–3.8 percent based on mid‑July inflation readings.
- By law the final COLA will be set using the Bureau of Labor Statistics' CPI‑W average for July through September and officially announced by the Social Security Administration in mid‑October.
- Medicare Part B premiums, which are deducted from Social Security checks, jumped to $202.90 in 2026 and the Medicare trustees project about $209.50 for 2027, a rise that will reduce the net increase beneficiaries receive.
- The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates a 3.8% COLA would add roughly $300 billion to the 10‑year shortfall and would hasten trust‑fund depletion by about three months, while Social Security trustees project key reserves exhausted in 2032 without congressional action.
- Because many retirees rely mainly or solely on Social Security and face rising health and housing costs, a larger nominal COLA may leave real purchasing power little changed and the July–September CPI readings will determine the final outcome.