Overview
- Piper Sandler forecasts roughly $91 billion in early‑2026 tax relief tied to the mismatch, including about $59 billion in refunds and $32 billion from lower balances due between February and April.
- JPMorgan Asset Management’s David Kelly notes the IRS will not adjust 2025 withholding, and estimates the average refund could reach about $3,743 versus $3,186 last year.
- Analysts say gains will skew to middle‑ and higher‑income households, with itemizers benefiting from the higher $40,000 SALT cap and seniors eligible for a $6,000 deduction that phases out at higher incomes.
- Some filers may see little change because several OBBBA breaks apply only to specific income types, such as tipped earnings, or require itemizing, so 2025 overwithholding will mainly be reconciled at filing.
- Reports describe a potentially record refund season and suggest many households plan to use refunds for essentials, while higher earners are likelier to save, as the government shutdown continues and SNAP funding questions persist.