Overview

• Nate Silver and Galen Druke have both identified Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as the most likely Democratic presidential nominee for 2028, citing her high favorability ratings and strong media profile.
• A Yale poll shows Ocasio-Cortez with the highest net favorability among potential Democratic contenders, bolstering speculation about her candidacy.
• Despite being their top pick, Silver expressed uncertainty about whether Ocasio-Cortez will actually enter the race, while Druke believes she is likely to run.
• Both analysts ranked Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro as the second-most likely contender, with differing opinions on Kamala Harris and Cory Booker for third place.
• Ocasio-Cortez is currently on a high-profile “Fight Oligarchy” tour with Senator Bernie Sanders, drawing significant grassroots support in key states.