Analysts Lift Tesla Q3 Delivery Outlook to as High as 475,000 on U.S. Credit Rush

A pre-expiration surge for the $7,500 U.S. EV tax credit is driving higher forecasts.

Overview

UBS raised its Tesla Q3 delivery estimate to 475,000 vehicles from 431,000, citing stronger U.S. demand tied to the expiring incentive.
Wolfe Research projects roughly 465,000–470,000 deliveries and now models Q3 EPS of $0.55–$0.60, above a $0.49 consensus.
Across Wall Street, updated forecasts cluster around 430,000–480,000 vehicles, with several firms guiding toward the upper end of the range.
Wolfe says its delivery outlook largely excludes meaningful volumes from the newly launched Model Y L, though it sees China trending above prior expectations.
Analysts caution the Q3 strength may prove temporary, warning of potential Q4 softness after pull-forward demand, even as UBS pegs full-year 2025 deliveries near 1.62 million.