Overview

• July survey raised 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.20% from 0.13%, marking a third consecutive upward revision.
• Year-end headline inflation projection trimmed to 4.05%, down from June's 4.07% estimate.
• Core inflation outlook for 2025 increased to 4.11%, signaling persistent price pressures excluding volatile items.
• Forecasts for 2026 remain unchanged at 1.31% GDP growth and 3.75% inflation as analysts expect modest expansion ahead.
• Survey results inform Banxico’s cautious approach to rate cuts in response to weak industrial output, resilient services-sector growth, external trade headwinds.