Overview

• Arthur Hayes argues the halving-timed cycle is obsolete, saying past bear markets followed monetary tightening rather than preset schedules.
• K33 Research says institutional capital and macro policy now outweigh halving mechanics, noting a 63,000 BTC weekly surge in ETF and derivatives exposure that often precedes consolidation.
• The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points in September and is expected to ease further, while Treasury bill issuance has redirected roughly $2.5 trillion from the reverse repo facility into markets.
• Hayes contends China is shifting away from deflationary restraint toward a more neutral stance, removing a headwind that previously curtailed rallies.
• Spot ETF demand remains strong, with BlackRock’s IBIT taking in about $899 million on Oct. 7 and U.S. spot ETFs logging eight straight days of net inflows as bitcoin trades near $122,000.