Overview
- U.S. forces captured Nicolás Maduro and President Trump said Washington would run Venezuela and invite American oil companies to rebuild the sector, with the U.S. embargo on Venezuelan oil still in place.
- Venezuela holds about 303 billion barrels of proven reserves but produces roughly 1.0–1.1 million barrels per day after years of mismanagement, sanctions and decayed infrastructure, with heavy crude that fits many U.S. Gulf Coast refineries.
- Analysts say new investment hinges on security, contract certainty and sanctions relief, with estimates of about $100 billion and up to a decade to raise output toward 4 million bpd; JPMorgan sees 1.3–1.4 million bpd within two years and potentially 2.5 million by the next decade, while Goldman expects a gradual recovery and a modest long‑term price drag.
- Chevron is the only major U.S. operator on the ground at roughly 250,000 bpd through PDVSA joint ventures, and ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips are monitoring developments after past expropriations and unresolved arbitration awards.
- Legal experts flag unresolved ownership and international‑law issues over exploiting Venezuelan resources, and near‑term market impact appears limited as OPEC already accounts for the country’s output and prices edged lower Monday, with Brent near $60.54 and WTI around $57.04.