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Analyst Urges Bitcoin Quantum-Resistant Upgrade by 2026 as Warnings Intensify

Revised quantum-computing estimates have sharpened concerns about the security of current ECDSA signatures.

Overview

  • On Oct. 9, analyst Charles Edwards urged Bitcoin developers and major stakeholders to implement quantum-resilient protections by 2026.
  • Edwards said some large holders portray the threat as "10+ years out," which he claims helps fuel short-term price pumps.
  • Google Quantum AI researcher Craig Gidney recently estimated a 2048-bit RSA key could be factored in under a week with fewer than one million noisy qubits.
  • Gidney’s update marks about a 20-fold reduction from his 2019 estimate that envisioned roughly 20 million qubits and eight hours of computation.
  • The calls for action focus on the risk that Shor’s algorithm could compromise Bitcoin’s ECDSA-based signatures once sufficiently powerful hardware exists.