Overview
- Ming‑Chi Kuo told followers in early July that he expects Apple to announce a foldable iPhone with very low initial assembly volumes, estimating about 7–8 million units for the second half of 2026 and only about 0.5–1 million units in Q3.
- Kuo projects the low Q3 output makes simultaneous September sales unlikely and says preorders and wider shipments could be delayed into Q4 with tight supply through the end of 2026.
- His channel checks with carriers and resellers suggest strong short‑term demand even at a likely $2,300–$2,500 price, with expected shipping waits of four to six weeks or longer and possible reseller premiums of 50–100%.
- Unverified leaks published July 6 indicate Huawei plans a three‑fold Mate XT 2 and a large foldable likely called Mate X8 for H2 2026 and a ‘small wide‑fold’ next year, signalling faster product diversification among Chinese makers.
- What to watch next are Apple’s component yields and assembly ramp, actual preorder timing, and rival launches because those factors will show whether early scarcity reflects temporary production strain or long‑term limits on consumer demand into late‑2026 and Q1 2027.