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Analyses Show DOGE’s Touted Cuts Were Overstated as U.S. Spending Rose in 2025

Independent reviews using Treasury data conclude that headline savings were accounting illusions, not reductions in actual outlays.

Overview

  • Federal outlays increased by about $248 billion in the first 11 months of 2025 versus 2024, with a Brookings tracker showing spending rising from $7.135 trillion to $7.558 trillion.
  • The New York Times found DOGE’s 13 largest claimed contract savings were incorrect, including two Defense items totaling $7.9 billion that remained active.
  • Only 12 of DOGE’s 40 biggest claims appeared to reflect real reductions, as reviewers documented double-counting, timeline errors, and lowered contract ceilings that did not cut spending.
  • DOGE said it made more than 29,000 cuts to contracts, grants and personnel, but the initiative did not address fast-growing mandatory programs that drive most federal outlays.
  • Federal employment fell roughly 9%—about 271,000 jobs—before DOGE ceased operating as a centralized unit after Elon Musk’s May departure, with reports of service disruptions from canceled work.