Overview
- The Census Bureau’s latest data show the trade deficit grew nearly 37% in November, leaving the 2025 shortfall 4% above 2024 despite the president’s claims of a sharp reduction.
- Paul Krugman estimates the tariffs added about 0.8% to inflation, while Harvard Business School and EconoFact analyses point to roughly a 1-point boost to CPI versus a no-tariff scenario.
- Yale Budget Lab data indicate average tariff rates spiked above 25% after early 2025 announcements before receding to around 17% as some measures were delayed or scaled back.
- Market-driven exemptions and carve-outs, including Apple-related exclusions, helped blunt price pressures even as tariffs raised costs for many imported goods.
- The administration’s use of emergency powers to impose broad import taxes is under Supreme Court review following November arguments.