Overview

• Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost, a Chicago-born cleric, was elected Pope Leo XIV, becoming the first American to lead the Catholic Church.
• Prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi gave Prevost just 1.2–1.8% odds before his election, with Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin as the favorite.
• Six Polymarket users earned over $20,000 each by betting on Prevost, including one user who turned a $1,059 wager into a $63,650 profit.
• A Kalshi bettor also secured a $52,641 payout from a $526 bet on Prevost’s long-shot odds.
• The event raises questions about the reliability of crypto-based betting platforms, which have struggled with forecasting complex, opaque processes like papal elections.