Overview
- After an ~76%–80% gain in 2025, AMD closed the year with record Q3 revenue of about $9.25 billion, expanding margins and free cash flow as AI products grew to roughly one-fifth of sales.
- Marquee wins set the 2026 roadmap: OpenAI plans a 6‑gigawatt AMD build with the first ~1 GW of MI450 expected in the second half of 2026, and Oracle targets a 50,000‑GPU MI450 supercluster beginning in Q3 2026 using Helios racks.
- Software traction improved as AMD reported roughly 10x year‑over‑year ROCm downloads by November 2025, aiming to lower switching costs versus Nvidia’s CUDA.
- Wall Street remains positive heading into 2026, with multiple Buy/Overweight calls and consensus 12‑month targets implying roughly 32%–34% upside, though opinions vary on how much is already priced in.
- Key risks persist, including Nvidia’s estimated 80%–90% accelerator share, power and supply constraints, execution complexity on large rollouts, and a China market that reopened only partially under a fee‑based U.S. export framework.