Overview
- Bull Theory contends the ALT/BTC ratio likely bottomed in Q4 2025 after nearly four years of decline.
- Technical readings point to a potential trend turn, with RSI at record oversold levels and the monthly MACD flipping positive for the first time in about 21–22 months.
- The Russell 2000 broke to new highs in Q4 2025, a risk-on cue that preceded the 2017 and 2021 altcoin runs by several months.
- Analysts attribute the cycle’s roughly one-year delay to 2024’s Fed balance-sheet contraction and tight liquidity, which began to ease late in 2025.
- Caution persists as confirmation is pending, with some noting Bitcoin may need a close above the 6–12 month holder cost basis near $100,000 even as ETH trades around $3,200 and XRP posts outsized weekly gains.