Overview
- Nvidia, which briefly topped roughly $5 trillion in value in late October, has fallen around 8%–10% since then as the Nasdaq retreated about 5% and broader indexes slipped.
- High-profile moves have intensified caution, with Peter Thiel exiting his Nvidia stake, SoftBank selling $5.8 billion of shares, and Michael Burry disclosing more than $1 billion in put options against Nvidia and Palantir.
- Demand signals remain robust, with Jensen Huang citing about $500 billion in bookings through 2026 and hyperscalers pouring billions into AI data centers, yet margins face pressure from more complex systems and faster product cycles.
- Policy and geopolitics complicate the outlook, as U.S. export controls restrict Nvidia’s most advanced chips from China and investors question circular financing and depreciation assumptions across the AI buildout.
- Macro shifts are weighing on sentiment, with the probability of a December Fed rate cut dropping near 40% from above 90%, even as AMD gained after its investor day and an OpenAI deal lifted expectations for share gains in data-center GPUs.