Overview

• Krüger argues that heavy long liquidations in Bitcoin and Ethereum signal capitulation, with many altcoins stabilizing earlier in a sign of budding strength.
• He expects choppy trading to persist into the Federal Reserve’s mid-September meeting, viewing a 25 basis-point cut as likely but not a catalyst for mania.
• The economist promotes a less volatile “super cycle” with smaller pullbacks rather than a classic blow-off top.
• He does not expect a euphoric peak in 2025 and suggests the next major top could arrive in 2026 as changes at the Fed potentially reshape conditions.
• Options data showing puts priced over calls and his dismissal of September seasonality as “statistical nonsense” underpin his contrarian stance.