Overview

• The province now projects a 2025–26 shortfall of $6.5 billion, which is $1.3 billion deeper than forecast in February.
• Alberta has cut its West Texas Intermediate assumption to about US$63.75 per barrel, with each US$1 swing affecting revenue by roughly $750 million.
• Resource revenue is forecast at $15.7 billion, a 38% drop from its 2022–23 peak, as weaker royalties and a stronger Canadian dollar reduce receipts.
• Operating expenses are pegged near $65 billion, including about $650 million from new public‑sector union agreements.
• The government cites U.S. tariff conflict as a major risk, marking a sharp reversal from last year’s $8.3‑billion surplus.