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1h ago

Alberta Forecasts $2‑Billion Surplus After Oil-Price Windfall

Higher oil prices pushed non‑renewable resource revenue up, producing an unallocated surplus officials warn could reverse if markets change.

Pumpjacks draw out oil and gas from wellheads near Calgary on Friday, April 28, 2023.
A pumpjack draws out oil from a well head near Calgary on Sept. 17, 2022. Alberta's revised surplus forecast assumes an ease in conflict and global oil supply squeeze, and for oil prices to decline substantially and average $73.50 US for the April-to-March fiscal year.
President of Treasury Board and Minister of Finance Jason Nixon is on Thursday morning sharing Alberta’s 2026-27 first quarter fiscal update and economic statement.

Overview

  • The province's first-quarter fiscal update reports an $11.4‑billion improvement since Budget 2026 and now projects a $2‑billion surplus for 2026–27.
  • Total revenue for 2026–27 is forecast at $86.3 billion, about $11.7 billion above the February budget mainly because non‑renewable resource revenue rose by roughly $9.7 billion.
  • The government revised its West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil forecast to US$73.50 per barrel for the year, about US$13 higher than the budget assumption, and credited higher oil prices for the swing.
  • Officials have not earmarked the surplus for debt repayment or a deposit into the Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund and say the extra cash will help cover $315 million in higher program costs and a $717 million uplift to the capital plan.
  • The update underscores Alberta's dependence on volatile energy markets and trade risks, and the government says it will keep fiscal discipline while audited year‑end results are completed in early fall.