Overview

• Health Minister Mark Butler’s proposal would transition children with mild to moderate autism or developmental delay from individual NDIS packages to a new Thriving Kids program, with phased rollout from July 2026 and full transfer by July 2027.
• Canberra has pledged about $2 billion to launch Thriving Kids, which will deliver supports in mainstream settings rather than through personalised NDIS plans.
• The government is targeting scheme growth of 8% by July 2026 and 5–6% over the forward estimates, with Butler also promising tougher action on fraud, provider registration and pricing discipline.
• NDIA data show $46.3 billion in NDIS payments to 739,414 participants over the past year, including about $3.1 billion for 214,865 children with developmental delay or autism, who make up nearly 30% of participants but under 7% of spending.
• Parents, advocates and some MPs warn of a two-tier system and service gaps, unions report burnout and staffing shortages that could hinder delivery, and researchers estimate the NDIS has driven nearly half of new autism diagnoses since 2013.