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Alaska Senate Race Hangs on Mail Ballots and Ranked‑Choice Rules

Tens of thousands of outstanding absentee ballots will determine the winner when Alaska conducts ranked‑choice tabulation on November 18.

Overview

  • Mary Peltola holds a slim first‑choice lead of roughly 600 to 700 votes with about three quarters of ballots reported and tens of thousands of mail and absentee ballots still outstanding.
  • The race is clouded by reporting that operatives tied to Peltola were involved in recruiting an independent candidate named Daniel J. Sullivan to run, a claim Peltola denies and that prompted a Justice Department civil suit and a criminal inquiry.
  • A federal judge dismissed the DOJ certification suit on Nov. 1 for lack of standing and voter‑secrecy concerns, and the department has filed an appeal while state and campaign legal fights continue.
  • Ballot‑level analyses by multiple news outlets found many voters who chose the namesake candidate ranked Peltola as their second choice, which reduces the likelihood that those ballots will automatically transfer to the incumbent under ranked‑choice rules.
  • Disputes over spoiled or overvote ballots and access to preliminary absentee records have produced new lawsuits and preservation orders, and final tabulation and certification are likely to take weeks with possible further litigation.