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Alabama–Vanderbilt Rematch Set for Saturday at Bryant-Denny as Line Tightens

Oddsmakers still favor Alabama by roughly 10 points as sharp money leans toward Vanderbilt with projections split.

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Will Ty Simpson and the Alabama Crimson Tide beat the Vanderbilt Commodores on Saturday? SEC football predictions, picks, odds preview the college football Week 6 game on Oct. 4, 2025.
Diego Pavia #2 of the Vanderbilt Commodores runs the ball during the second half against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in the Birmingham Bowl at Protective Stadium on December 27, 2024 in Birmingham, Alabama.

Overview

  • No. 11 Alabama hosts No. 16 Vanderbilt on Oct. 4 at 2:30 p.m. CT on ABC in Tuscaloosa, a year after the Commodores’ 40-35 upset in Nashville.
  • Caesars opened Alabama -13.5 before the spread quickly fell to around -10.5, with bookmakers citing sharper action on Vanderbilt while public bets back Alabama and the over.
  • BetMGM lists the Crimson Tide as 10.5-point favorites, and ESPN gives Alabama about a 74% win probability, though other models are more divided.
  • Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia said the game “won’t be close” if the Commodores play their game; he is completing 74.6% with 1,211 passing yards, 13 TDs and 294 rushing yards.
  • Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer called Vanderbilt a very good, improved team and emphasized discipline after a 24-21 win at Georgia, with QB Ty Simpson at 11 TDs and no interceptions; Johnny Manziel plans to be on Vanderbilt’s sideline supporting Pavia.