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AlabamaOklahoma, GeorgiaTexas Poised to Reshape CFP Picture as Models Defy Expert Picks

Sportsbooks lean to home favorites by roughly six points, with simulations backing the underdogs to cover.

Overview

  • Both showdowns carry direct SEC and College Football Playoff stakes, with reporting noting the losers risk falling off the playoff bubble.
  • Top sportsbooks list Alabama around -6 over Oklahoma and Georgia -6.5 over Texas after slight moves toward the home teams.
  • SportsLine’s model projects Oklahoma to cover at Alabama in more than half of simulations and backs Texas to cover at Georgia in about 57–60% of runs.
  • CBS Sports experts pick Alabama -6 and Georgia -6, reflecting a broader media lean toward the favorites despite the contrarian model signals.
  • CFP committee chair Mack Rhoades says playing in a conference championship is viewed positively, while Nick Saban highlights Arch Manning’s recent efficiency uptick as Texas seeks a signature road result.