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Airlines Set for Record Profit and Passengers in 2026 as Margins Stay Thin, IATA Says

Thin margins reflect capacity constraints, rising non‑fuel costs, scarce SAF, returns below capital costs.

Overview

  • IATA projects a record $41 billion net profit for 2026 on $1.053 trillion in revenue, implying a 3.9% net margin.
  • Global passengers are forecast to reach 5.2 billion in 2026 with a record 83.8% load factor and $7.90 profit per passenger.
  • Return on invested capital is expected at 6.8%, trailing an estimated 8.2% cost of capital, highlighting weak industry returns.
  • Aircraft production bottlenecks and ageing fleets are set to persist as backlogs grow, capping fuel‑efficiency gains at about 1% and elevating maintenance costs.
  • SAF output is forecast around 2.4 million tonnes in 2026 (about 0.8% of fuel use), cargo volumes are seen at 71.6 million tonnes, and Middle East airlines lead per‑passenger profit at about $28.60.