Overview
- On November 4, 2026 the independent watchdog AIReF published updated figures showing Spain will not meet EU spending limits in 2026–2028 because planned primary spending grows faster than committed targets.
- AIReF raised its 2026 deficit forecast to 2.8% of GDP and revised up growth and inflation for 2026 to 2.6% and 3.6% respectively, which improve nominal denominators but do not offset higher spending plans.
- The watchdog calculates average annual primary spending growth of 5.7% for 2026–2028 versus the 3.2% Spain pledged to the EU, producing a sizable cumulative deviation since 2023.
- AIReF finds the central government and most autonomous communities face risk of breaching Spain’s national spending rule in 2026–27, naming Galicia and Castilla‑La Mancha as cases where computable spending exceeds legal limits despite some regions showing accounting surpluses.
- The report says using a national security escape clause for defence could partly reduce breaches but no eligible defence measures have been identified and AIReF urges the Finance Ministry to draft a medium‑term fiscal strategy while warning all administrations to avoid permanent unfunded spending or tax cuts.