Overview

• Spain’s fiscal watchdog released technical documents on September 22 detailing modelled impacts for 2022–2050 that underpin its March sustainability opinion.
• Combined effects of recent minimum wage increases and post‑2020 labor reforms could raise the level of GDP by up to 0.35 percentage points, lift employment by up to 0.3 points, and add about 0.5% to social‑security contributions.
• Direct estimates for 2023 show 55,000 to 85,000 fewer new affiliates after the SMI rise, a larger hit than in 2019 as the minimum wage now covers more workers and has become Spain’s most common salary.
• Including demand effects from higher household income and consumption, Airef finds a neutral to slightly positive employment impact, up to 0.2% higher GDP over 2022–2050, and a 0.2% to 1.4% rise in contribution revenues.
• Labor reforms since 2020 are estimated to lift the GDP level by up to 0.15 points in the medium term and increase social‑security contributions by roughly 0.3% versus a no‑reform scenario.