Overview
- Airbus says the market will need about 42,060 new jetliners with more than 100 seats by 2045 and that most of those aircraft will add capacity rather than replace old planes.
- Airline travel growing at roughly three to four percent a year would double passenger traffic by mid-century and is the main driver of the additional aircraft demand.
- Europe will take only a small slice of that demand with Airbus estimating about 8,190 new aircraft for the region while Asia and nearby markets account for far larger shares.
- A cluster of European measures — ticket levies, higher navigation fees, the EU emissions trading system and sustainable fuel mandates — now form a cumulative cost burden that may encourage carriers and passengers to route flights outside the EU if the emissions scheme is extended to all departures.
- Airbus and Boeing delivery rates and existing backlogs are insufficient to meet the forecast which opens a practical market opportunity for new manufacturers such as China’s Comac and could change where airlines place future orders.