Overview

• Researchers led by Félix E. Rivera-Mariani analyzed daily fungal spore and virus data from 2022 to 2024 in Puerto Rico’s San Juan and Caguas health regions.
• Statistical and machine learning models showed that rises in airborne fungal spores preceded flu and COVID-19 case spikes within days, especially during the fall season.
• Pollen concentrations did not exhibit the same predictive relationship with respiratory virus infections.
• Findings highlight environmental exposures as valuable early indicators for outbreak forecasts, which could support risk alerts for elderly and respiratory-sensitive populations.
• Next steps include evaluating whether spore levels correlate with severe outcomes such as hospitalizations and testing the approach in other geographic regions.