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AI Trade Reprices Risk on Oracle Funding Strain as Nvidia Evaluates H200 Capacity for China

Investors are rethinking heavy AI buildouts, focusing on financing durability over sheer scale.

Overview

  • Blue Owl Capital reportedly walked away from talks to back Oracle’s $10 billion Michigan data center over lease and debt terms, while Oracle said its discussions are on schedule and did not involve Blue Owl.
  • Oracle lifted full-year capital spending guidance to $50 billion, reported $108.1 billion in debt and a quarterly free-cash-flow shortfall, and saw five-year CDS hit a record as shares extended losses from September highs.
  • Selling pressure spread to AI infrastructure names and broader indexes, with the Nasdaq down 1.81% on Wednesday as investors questioned the payoff timeline for massive data-center spending.
  • Nvidia received U.S. approval to sell H200 chips to certain Chinese commercial customers with a 25% surcharge, and Reuters reported the company is assessing added production after Chinese orders exceeded current output.
  • Despite caution around execution, power availability and potential Chinese competition, several firms kept Buy ratings on Nvidia with targets around $235–$275, citing dominant share in AI compute and networking.